In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo products worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen to a lot of industries in the next 10 years. And, most people won't see it coming. 
     Did you think in 1998 that three years later you would never take pictures on film again? Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. As with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became superior and went mainstream in only a few short years.
     It will now happen with 3D Printing, Agriculture, Artificial Intelligence, Business (Jobs), Cars, Education, Electricity, and lastly our Health.
Everything is changing so fast. We will be dealing
with different challenges on an annual basis. 
So, what's up for 2017?
Welcome to the New Industrial Revolution...
    Welcome to the Exponential Age in NYC!
  • Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next five to ten years. Any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.
  • Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars. And yet, they are now the biggest taxi company in the world!  FYI, I don't take Yellow Cabs anymore.
  • Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world. And yet, they do not own any properties!  FYI, NYC has not been friendly to this company (Coops don't like strangers in their buildings).
3D Printing: The price of a low-cost 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 X's faster. All major shoe companies have started 3D printing shoes. Some spare airplane parts are 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a 3D printer that eliminates the need to carry large amount of spare parts. At the end of this new year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete six-story office building. By 2027, 10% of everything produced will be 3D printed. Amazing things are coming fast. A system for paying for these amazing things is unclear. Is Bitcoin the solution?
Agriculture and Water: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in third world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market-- it contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people reject the idea of eating bugs). 
     Desalination of salt water is becoming affordable. We don't have scarce water in most places... We only have scarce drinking water in some places (i.e. Flint, MI).  Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have access to clean water, for nearly no cost! Aeroponics will need less water. The first petri-dish-produced-veal, is now available and in 2018, it will be cheaper than cow-produced-veal. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used by cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers are becoming exponentially better in understanding humans. This year, a computer beat the best human Go player in the world-- 10 years earlier than expected. By 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans. 
     In the US, young lawyers are finding it more difficult to get jobs. Thanks to IBM Watson, you can get legal advice with 90% accuracy compared to 70% accuracy when done by humans. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future. Only specialists will remain. Sounds wonderful... lol. 
     Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. By 2020, there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Could this impact the 2020 election? Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed which politician is telling the truth and which one isn’t. Have you seen the NETFLIX show, LIE TO MEIt's one of my favorites!
Business Opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to get into, ask yourself: "In the future, do you think we will have that?" If the answer is yes, then how can you make it happen sooner? And, if it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea.  
     70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time. Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency of the world. 
Cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear in the public. Around 2020, the entire auto industry will start to be disrupted. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and, you can be productive while driving. There will be no need to own a car anymore. Is having a driver's license a thing of the past?
     This will transform New York City because we will need less cars. Former parking garages will become new condos adding to our housing supply. There will be 1.2 million less people worldwide who will die each year in car accidents. The car insurance business model will disappear because without accidents, the rates will become 100 X's cheaper. 
     Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car. Tech companies such as Tesla, Apple and Google will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. Traditional car companies may go bankrupt. Many engineers at Volkswagen and Audi are terrified of Tesla. Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. New York City will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. 
Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to instant world-class education. Every child can use Khan Academy for everything at school in First World countries. Now, the software has been released in Indonesia and will be released in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this summer. The English app will be distributed for free in most of Africa so that those children can become fluent in English within half a year.
Electricity: Electricity will become less costly and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, only now can we see the burgeoning coming impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care of that strategy. A while back, I attended a seminar by former CIA Director James Woolsey. He's convinced the real threat to electricity are terrorists who may sabotage the NorthEast grid system.
Health: IBM Watson can diagnose cancer, four times more accurate than humans. There is a new medical device called the TRICORDER (from Star Trek) that works with your phone. This device takes your retina scan and a blood sample. When you breath into it, it analyses 54 bio-markers that identify nearly any disease. In a few years everyone on the planet will have access to world-class medical analysis at affordable prices. Goodbye, medical establishment and their absurd medical fees.
     In regards to Longevity, the average life span increases by three months per year. Four years ago, the life span was 79 years, now it's 80. The increase itself is increasing exponentially.  So we all might live for a very long time, to 100 and beyond!  Are you saving enough Bitcoins for your retirement?
And speaking of longevity... those of you who are under 65 today,
may well experience most of the above.  
Have a Happy, Healthy, Prosperous New Year!
Court Hassinger Court Hassinger
Licensed as: R Courtney Hassinger
Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker
(212) 605-9394 (direct)  |  (917) 841-9284 (cell)
Bio & Listings
Real estate agents affiliated with The Corcoran Group are independent contractor sales associates and are not employees of The Corcoran Group. The Corcoran Group is a licensed real estate broker located at 660 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10065 . All material herein is intended for information purposes only and has been compiled from sources deemed reliable. Though information is believed to be correct, it is presented subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without notice. This is not intended to solicit property already listed. Equal Housing Opportunity. All dimensions provided are approximate. To obtain exact dimensions, Corcoran advises you to hire a qualified architect or engineer. ©2017 The Corcoran Group. All Rights Reserved.